Fisher's Punt Call Blows Chance for Upset

I'd love to hear Jeff Fisher talk his way out of this one. That is, if anyone would seriously question him. 

With about 4 minutes to go, the Titans were down 6, with the ball, on about their own 30. Fourth-and-1. Punt. This was the wrong call.

We had just forced Peyton Manning to go three-and-out -- what were the odds of stopping him again? Not good. 

You'd probably say that you'd hate to give the Colts the ball on our 30. It would basically guarantee defeat.  But if you punt and still allow a score (they had scored on 5/8 possessions up to that point), you not only allow time to run off the clock, but you also have to use your timeouts... and you probably leave the field in  defeat. 

Either way, we needed a TD and to not allow any points. The best way to do that is to keep the ball, not punt it back to Peyton. Either that drive or the next one was going to be our last effort. And presumably a last effort drive is going to require a fourth down conversion. This was fourth-and-1, the easiest of all fourth downs. Why not go ahead and make this our final drive? What's the difference? Fisher basically bet that his defense had a better chance of stopping Manning than his offense did of gaining one single yard. Come on. 

Last year, you might remember, Bill Belicheck and the Patriots were in a similar situation against the Colts. They had the ball around their own 30 near the end of the game. They needed points and faced fourth-and-two. Belicheck chose to go for it. Due to a bad spot (and arguably a bad play call), they didn't get it. 

At first, the football analysts questioned his decision. Then they questioned it some more. We were hearing about that call for the entire week. But Belicheck knew what he was doing. He liked the chances of his offense getting two yards better than of his defense stopping Peyton Manning. Statistics gurus around the web did their thing and validated: Belicheck made the right call. It didn't work, but it was the right call.

If Fisher had chosen to go for it, there's no guarantee we would have gotten it. There's even less of a guarantee we would have scored a touchdown on the drive. But going for it was the right call and no one is going to question Fisher's decision... as usual. 

I mean, Bill Belicheck got criticism for that call. BILL BELICHECK. And that was for making the RIGHT call. What criticism is Jeff Fisher going to get for making the wrong call?

Probably none. 

Because if you've taken a team to the playoffs 5 times in 17 years and have 1 Super Bowl appearance, you must be right. Right?

Thursday Night Musings

1. LeBron is playing in Cleveland tonight. First of all, the fans don't owe him anything. He earned hundreds of millions of dollars playing for them. He earned worldwide fame. He became one of the best players in the league. And then he planned a huge spectacle to tell everyone that he was leaving them. I don't have a problem with any negativity they throw his way all night. He's a professional athlete getting paid millions of dollars. He can deal with it.

In fact, I'm watching just to hear them boo. I want to see and hear the most outrageous coordination of boo-chanting in the history of sports. I have a feeling it will be a letdown in that regard, but that's why I'm watching.

2. The Heat in general have been a letdown. There is a lot of trash being thrown at Coach Spolstra, but I think the issue is that LeBron and Wade are having a hard time coming to grips with the fact that they can't play together. Sure, when they were on Team USA it was easy. No one cared about how many points you scored, you only played a handful of games, and you were playing against (mostly) inferior competition. Oh, and you both knew you weren't the Alpha Dog (that was Kobe and they all knew it), so it was easy for you to accept your roles and play together. But now you're back home in the NBA and things are a little different. And you don't know how to play together.

Maybe they are going to figure it out. I'd be surprised if they've already resigned themselves to thinking they just cannot do it. But they certainly don't want to let people know that's what they're thinking. That after all that hype, they both realize they kinda sort made a bad decision.

Or maybe they'll start winning when Pat Riley starts coaching.

3. Tony Kornheiser offered the explanation that the NFL decided not to suspend Andre Johnson because the Texans' next game was on the NFL's Network and Johnson is basically the only draw to that team. Granted, Mike Vick is also playing, and he's probably been the most talked about positive story in the NFL this year (it's a shame Brett Favre and the Cowboys got more attention for so long). But it's a pretty reasonable point. As Adam Schefter said -- if that fight had happened on the street, they would have been arrested. Andre Johnson was openly pummeling Cortland Finnegan in the face! How is that not a suspension? Didn't Kyle Turley get suspended just for throwing his helmet?

GAME TIME. THE RETURN OF LEBRON!

Now That Was a Fight!

Literally the only enjoyable thing (at least from a Nashville perspective) about the Titans' 20-0 loss to Houston was the Finnegan-Johnson scuffle. I loved how Finnegan was clapping and laughing at it, although I think from an unbiased perspective, it makes him look like a dirty instigator. He clearly knows how to get under the opponent's skin. Unfortunately, sometimes he lets himself go a little and ends up drawing a flag (or getting kicked out), which would bother me... if I thought he was doing more harm than good on defense for the team.

Finnegan seriously cannot guard decent receivers. He's not as bad as Nick Harper was last year, but it seems to me like he's always turned around and just waiving his hands up when a pass comes his way. He is a solid tackler and blitzer, and is particularly good in run support, but I think his coverage skills are third on the team. That's right, I think the rookie Verner is the best coverage guy we've got. And McCourty is alright, too.

I'm not saying Finnegan should lose his starting job. I think overall he is better than the second-year McCourty, but I don't think our defense took that big of a hit once Cortland was ejected. Although that may have been because Andre Johnson (9 catches) was also ejected.


Now another thought, this time on the real game.

Rusty Smith looked awful. But that wasn't surprising. What WAS surprising was that we ran the ball 12 times. Seriously? A team with one of the best running backs in the league runs it only 12 times in a rookie QB's first NFL start?

And Fisher's comment on Monday was even more complexing: "Clearly our plan going in was to get the run game going and Chris going to take the pressure off the rookie quarterback. We were unable to do that, Rusty took a sack and we had a second-and-10 and you need to throw to get out."

Stop right there. We need to throw on second-and-10? Since when? When in your ENTIRE CAREER has your offense been prone to throwing it on second-and-10? Remember last year's game against the Texans? Well, I'll remind you.

Third quarter: Second-and-10: Lendale up the middle, no gain. Third down? Chris Johnson draw play. 91-yard TD.

Let's get the rest of that Fisher comment: "I think we had eight third-and-10 plusses out of 12 third-down attempts, and those are difficult to overcome."

So how many did you try running with CJ? Zero.

Back to last year: First quarter: third-and-19: Chris Johnson left side. 57-yard TD.

I just don't see why Fisher abandoned our best player to let a rookie QB try to throw it down the field on third-and-long. That makes no sense. And not only does it make no sense, but it's the complete opposite of what Fisher offenses have done the last 10 years. And yeah, I criticized him (and 'Dinger) a lot for it, but you know how they say a broken watch is right twice a day? Well we were coming up on the time when the watch was gonna be right (i.e. Fisher's usual strategy was gonna be the right call)... then Fisher moved the hands to make sure it would still be wrong!

I recognize the Titans offense was in a tough spot on Sunday. But our game plan didn't seem like it was designed for a rookie QB. When you don't game plan around your team's strengths and weaknesses, you're setting them up for failure.

I know the players take most of the blame, and they should. But once again, no one will question Fisher's coaching scheme. And maybe that's because of that awesome fight. But I think it's just another example of Jeff Fisher coaching blunders that go unnoticed and uncriticized.

It Takes Two (Titans) to Tango

If you're reading this, I'm pretty sure you know a lot about what happened on Sunday with Vince Young and the Titans. And I'm assuming you've realized that a lot of what was first reported didn't quite shake out the way the media spun it. All any of that does is (try to) skew sports fans' perceptions of Vince Young, Jeff Fisher, and the Titans in whichever way the journalist wants. (I'm not suggesting all the writing is maliciously intended to make you believe some made-up drama, just that each article takes a side and paints a picture.)

So as far as this story goes, I've just got one little idea I want to throw out there. Hopefully you'll at least find it interesting. Maybe it will even temper your view on the issue. Here it goes:

It seems like Jeff Fisher might be treating Vince Young like he's Steve McNair. Around the turn of the millennium, Fisher's quarterback was the ultimate tough guy. Number 9 was seemingly always shaking off an injury to come back into the game and lead the Titans to victory. He never sat on the bench waiting for Fisher to ask him if he was ready to come back in. He got taped up, put his helmet back on, and limped back out into the huddle. All Fisher had to do was run the ball a couple of times until McNair got his bones back in the right place. 

But Vince Young is a different guy. He's a guy with a fragile body and an even more fragile ego. He needs some encouragement. Or at the very least, a display of confidence. If he's going to play hurt, he's going to need some positive support. He's going to need the coach to come to him, not the other way around. 

Now maybe you say, "Tough! This is the NFL! It's not a game for wimps. Man up." And yeah, that's probably true. I'd much rather have a tough guy who is always in there for his team. But there's a time for "what I want" and a time for "what I have." The offseason (and specifically the April draft) is the time for the former. The season is the time for the latter. We're right smack dab in the middle of the season. It's time to get it done. 

The Titans don't have a tough stud; they've got a fragile talent. It's the head coach's job to make the best of what you have. Fisher might wish he had McNair, but he's got Young. And by treating Vince like Steve, he's making things worse for the Titans. I know he's been a head coach in the NFL for 16 season, but by mishandling the personality of his starting quarterback, Jeff Fisher has really just revealed his inability to adapt to the players he's coaching. 

Questions and Answers

Throughout the NFL in Week 10, a lot of questions were answered. But in Nashville, all we've got are more questions. First on the Titans, then on a few other NFL things I learned on Sunday.

The Titans came into Miami averaging 28 points per game, best in the league. They also came in with a new weapon, Randy Moss. How did our offense regress with Moss in the lineup? Wouldn't you think any team should benefit from having a Randy Moss who is willing to play team ball? The 17 points we scored was the second-lowest output of the season for Fisher & Co., and I can't quite figure out why.

Was it because Kerry Collins started? He clearly has no touch on downfield passes, overthrowing several open receivers for not apparent reason. He also couldn't throw the short passes; I noticed at least two plays where Collins hit a Dolphins defender in the helmet attempting a screen pass. Yikes. I know he had a great 4th quarter against the Eagles a few weeks ago, but I didn't see anything in Miami that warranted his $5 million salary.

Did Vince struggle because he came in cold in the second half? Maybe. On his third play, three Dolphins went basically unblocked, leading to a fumble. But he came back the next possession and drove us 73 yards in 11 plays for a TD. But once again, our second half defense was horrendous. We couldn't get off the field and Miami kept the ball for a 2:1 advantage in time of possession, giving Vince only 4 drives to work with. Could VY have been a little better? Of course. But he didn't exactly get a lot of in-game experience with his new toy, so let's not overreact. If Vince plays the entire game, I think Moss finishes with more than 28 yards on 1 catch.

Did Moss open up room for Chris Johnson? It sure looked like it. CJ averaged almost 7 yards per carry on his way to 117 yards against a defense that had allowed only one century-mark rusher this season (Adrian Peterson back in Week 2). This was the one positive I took away from the game. It was also nice to hear Mike Heimerdinger say that he spoke with Moss about the fact that he was being double-covered and Moss said he didn't care and was content to let the defense's coverage dictate the passing game. Sounds like a team player, right?

Is our defense any good? It certainly looks like we have a serious weakness against the pass. Our front four don't seem to be getting enough pressure, and our secondary doesn't seem to be guarding anyone. Even Tyler Thigpen was able to engineer a scoring drive. I seem to remember some blitzing from our defense early in the year. Where did it go?

I think we will look significantly better on offense against Washington next week. Vince and Heimerdinger will have more time to gel with Moss, and hopefully Cecil can fix the defense a little. Although maybe we'll get lucky -- If things don't go well for the 'Skins tonight against Philly, maybe Shanahan will bench McNabb and go with Rex Grossman.

Okay, now on to the rest of the NFL...

1) Did the Patriots expose that Steelers D? According to Cris Collinsworth, the Steelers were having trouble with the Patriots two-tight end sets. And it sure looked like it -- Brady threw for 350 yards and three TDs. I didn't see the Patriots have any trouble marching up and down the field. They even ran it for over 100 yards and more than 4 yards per carry. It looks like someone finally cracked the code.

2) The Jets get lucky again. There are two ways to interpret a team winning close games when they're not playing well. One is that they are a good team that can win even when they aren't playing well. The other is that they are just lucky. For the Jets, I'm taking the latter. This win over Cleveland relied on an overtime fumble by Cleveland receiver Chansi Stuckey at the Jets' 32-yard line. Their win over the Lions involved a missed extra point, a Jim Schwartz coaching mistake, and a crucial person foul call. A week before their bye, the Jets were a 46-yard pass interference call from a loss in Denver. This team is 7-2, but could very reasonably by 4-5.

3) The Giants lost to the Cowboys. I can't really say "I told you so" because I didn't exactly pick the Cowboys to win, but if you read the last blog post, you know that I was basically calling the Giants frauds at 6-2. They've got a tough remaining schedule, including @GB and two games against Philly and Washington. Don't be surprised if they miss the playoffs.

4) Buffalo wins! They've got a tough closing schedule, but I think they'll get to 2 or 3 wins and lose out to the Panthers for the #1 pick in April. And if you haven't heard Inside the NFL's sideline audio on Jay Cutler during the Bears-Bills game in Toronto, go find it. It's great.

5) The Seahawks are the roller coaster team. First, they go up and down up and down to start 2-2. Then they get 2 solid wins, and follow it with 2 blowout losses. Now another blowout win. I don't know what to expect from this team... except perhaps a playoff berth.

6) I still don't buy Tampa Bay. Let's talk in mid-December, after their @BAL, v. ATL, @ WAS stretch.

7) Atlanta impressed me with their Thursday night win over Baltimore, whose defense is starting to look ordinary.

8) I'm ready to officially make a Lock It Up pick for a division winner: San Diego wins the AFC West.

Titans' Second Half Preview

A few things I'll be looking for during the second half of the season for the Titans:

1. Can Vince keep it up? And will Fisher even give him a chance? He's gone almost 100 passing attempts without an interception, but people still don't seem to believe in his reliability. In my opinion, he can carry this offense. But he's not Peyton Manning, which means he is reliant on the coaches to actually let him throw the ball. They called 31 pass plays for Kerry Collins against the Eagles (actually 34 if you count the three sacks), but Vince hasn't been allowed to break 30 all year. One reason is that Vince is giving the Titans 4th quarter leads, which at least tells you Vince is doing his job and scoring points. But Fisher isn't allowing him to tack on an insurance TD late in the game, instead opting to try to run out the clock with 8 minutes to go and up by 4, which leads me to my next point(s)...

2a. Can we close out a game? I refuse to put all the blame on the defense for not being able to get off the field in the fourth quarter. The coaches need to stop calling in the prevent defense at the end of halves. As Phil Simms said in the fourth quarter of the Colts-Eagles game: "When the game is on the line, you have to let your defense do what it does best." Do you think the Titans are good at the prevent? Is that what we do best? No! Fisher needs to throw the Cover No One in the trash because it never works.

2b. Here's another radical concept. Let's take an idea from baseball: "Insurance Runs." These are runs that a good team scores in the late innings when they are already winning a close game. Adding a few insurance runs makes it easier to close out the other team. Your closer doesn't have to be perfect in order for you to win. In the Titans' case, the closer is our defense. It's pretty clear they are exhausted at the end of the game. Instead of putting the pressure on them by running the ball three times and punting, the Titans should go for an extra "insurance touchdown" to give the defense a little cushion. That's what a good team would do, anyway. I think the extra points would be much more helpful than a three-and-out that keeps the clock running.

3. How will Randy Moss affect the offense? Ideally, he'd haul in a few long balls a game, bring double teams, and clear out that loaded box Chris Johnson and the O-Line have been dealing with. Then, ideally, CJ will start tearing it up like he did in the second half of last season. We have the weapons. We can score from anywhere on the field at any time. Let's make it happen. And it would probably be helpful in Moss decides to block.

4. How will Moss affect the team? It will be interesting to see how he responds to Fisher. From the outside, (i.e. from the perspective of having never actually talked to either one of them) it seems like Fisher is the right type of coach for Moss. Let's hope so.

5. Can we beat Indy? We certainly have the tools to do it. Forget playing keep away from Manning, because we're no good at time of possession anyway. Just score a lot of points. If it's a low-scoring game, I'm afraid we don't have much of a chance, because Peyton is going to beat our defense eventually. If the Colts' D is stopping us, Peyton won't feel as much pressure to score, because he knows he'll do it eventually and that will be enough. But if it's a high-scoring game, I think that's when we can put the pressure on him. We can play a little more aggressively on defense and make him feel like he has to score every time to win. I think that's the way for us to beat the Colts.

6. It's going to be tough to get into the playoffs in the AFC. Here's a look at the teams we're dealing with:

Indy (5-3): They have to play @NE and home against SD in back-to-back weeks, plus two games against us. It's going to be tough for them to win 12 games again this year.

Jets (6-2): They've got @NE and @PIT with a tough home game against Miami in between. I feel like this team also has the potential to be upset by a team like Cleveland, Houston, or Cincy. I don't think the Jets can do better than 11-5.

Baltimore (6-2): Another game against the Steelers, and tough game in Atlanta on Thursday, but other than that, I don't see any reason why this team can't go 13-3. Unless Nola, Cincy, Houston, Tampa, or Cleveland can take them down.

Pittsburgh (6-2): They've got NE, @BAL, and the Jets. Until some offensive coordinator figures out the weakness in their defense, this team is in good shape. I'm thinking 12 or 13 wins.

Patriots (6-2): @PIT, Indy, NYJ, and GB. That's tough. They've also got Miami in the season finale. If this team can't figure out how to stop the run (and if their offense can't put up more than 14 points against the Browns), they're in trouble. I'm thinking 10-6 type trouble.

I'm leaving our KC, OAK, and SD because I think it's pretty clear the Chargers are going to run the table and win the division at 11-5. Oakland and KC are going to finish 9-7 at best.

Unfortunately eliminated: Houston, Miami, Jacksonville.
Don't deserve to be considered: Cincy, Cleveland, Denver.
Are you serious? Buffalo.

(Hopeful) Prediction: Titans win the division.

A Giant Analogy

Let’s talk college football. Since it’s hard to talk about specific teams without invoking bias, current season status, and other factors, I’m going to leave the team and it’s opponents unnamed. I’ll try to make everything clear with some short descriptions of the games and teams playing in them. Our team will be called Hypothetical University (HU).

Game 1: HU beats a team that no one thought was going to be good. At QB, they’re between a true freshman and a junior who doesn’t seem to be any good. As of Nov. 8, this team has won 1 game. HU wins, 31-18.

Game 2: HU loses to one of the national championship favorites, quarterbacked by a guy who many consider to be the best to ever play the position. This team has since suffered some injuries and now sits at 5-3, but they wallop HU, 38-14.

Game 3: HU loses to a team that was not expected to compete for a national title, but has since proved that they might need to be included in the conversation. This team also has the best running back in the nation. HU loses 29-10, and looks ugly doing it.

Game 4: HU beats a team that was a surprisingly 4-0 at the time, but has since slipped to 4-4. They also have a historically overrated QB, can’t block, or doing anything else for that matter. Although they have a solid defense, their offense epitomizes inept. HU wins 17-3.

Game 5: HU beats a team that, every year, seems like they are going to finally make the move into being a BCS contender. But this team has stumbled back to their familiar position at .500. HU wins 34-10.

Game 6: HU beats a historically awful team who is finally starting to look like they’re making progress. Nonetheless, this team is 2-6 as of Nov. 8. HU wins, 28-20.

Game 7: HU beats a team that was supposed to compete for a national title, but has actually been awful. This team has a lot of talent but seems to be poorly coached. They are now 1-7. HU wins 41-35.

Game 8: HU beats a team that wasn’t supposed to be any good. This team has a new coach and is a surprising 4-4. HU wins 41-7.

Okay so let’s recap: HU is 6-2. They lost to the two good teams they played, and beat the others, none of whom seem to be very good. Where would you rank HU in the Top 25? Would you say they are one of the top teams in the nation?

I know they’re not undefeated, and in college you can’t have more than 1 loss if you want to be top 5, so let’s try to be qualitative. How good is this team? Right, you’d have to see them play.

But from my descriptions, they seem like they’re okay, right? They beat a bunch of bad teams and lost to two good ones. So they’re clearly not elite, right? We can at least agree on that?

Well guess what? This team is the 2010 New York Giants. After losing to the Colts and Titans (games 2 and 3), they were declared “a team in disarray” and were 24^th in ESPN’s Power Rankings. Now, after beating all those mediocre-at-best teams, there are questions they could be the best team in the NFC or even the NFL.

My point is that even though the NFL has much more consistent competition than college football, it doesn’t mean that beating 5 bad teams makes you elite. So when the New York Giants get bludgeoned by two good teams and then beat 5 bad teams, it’s a little absurd when the media starts to wonder aloud whether they’re the best team in the league. 

That One Last Yard

Remember when Kevin Dyson came up one yard shy of the end zone on the last play to tie the Super Bowl? Of course you do. What you may also remember is that two years earlier, Jeff Fisher and Floyd Reese, then the brain trust of Bud Adams’ NFL organization (at that time, the Houston Oilers), were looking to draft a receiver in the first round of the (1998) draft. They chose to go with Kevin Dyson over this guy named Randy Moss.

Some Titans fans have wishfully proclaimed that if the Titans had drafted Moss, who is three inches taller and was perhaps a half step faster than Dyson, we get into the end zone on that final play. It’s more of a joke than a realistic hypothetical, of course. But that play, as you may have guessed, is the inspiration for the name of this blog. Just to clarify: it has nothing to do with Moss. It’s just an allusion to the Titans being just short of that Super Bowl win that Bud Adams has never seen. That last yard is the last thing the Titans need to do to get there, whether it’s a slight adjustment to our offensive or defensive strategy or some final piece of the roster puzzle.

And now we might be witnessing another one of those full-circle stories that only happens in sports. The Titans grab Randy Moss off waivers from the Vikings. Yes, there is the chance that he’ll be the disgruntled, wasted talent that he was in Oakland (and Minnesota for the last month). And if that’s the case, it’ll be another one of those you-shouldda-seen-it-coming stories that… only happens in sports. But let’s think positively.

Moss is the greatest deep threat in the NFL. He’s a home run hitter on the outside. Chris Johnson is a homer run hitter from the backfield. You’ve got to pitch to one of them. If you double-team Moss, that leaves 9 guys for the rest of the Titans team. That puts Chris Johnson is a pretty good position to get back to the pace he was on last year. If you don’t double team Moss, Vince Young can just throw it up to Moss down the field. And if you’ve watched the Titans play this year, you know that Vince is much more comfortable (and accurate) throwing down the field than he is on short- and medium-range passes. Either way, I like our chances.

Don’t be surprised if the Titans’ already second-ranked scoring offense picks up even more. And if Fisher and company can put it all together, don’t be surprised to see them playing late into the postseason. It’s always been a wishful hypothetical, but now it might become reality: Randy Moss might just give the Titans that one last yard.  

The Titans Need to Pass First

What’s that you say? The team with the ever-dangerous CJ2K needs to be pass-first? The guy ran for 2,000 yards last year and is second in the league this year (on pace for 1,400 yards, which aint too shabby). They need to lean more on a QB with a career rating of 75? A guy with a 1:1 TD:INT ratio?

Yes. Absolutely. Definitely.

The Titans are not struggling to score points. They’ve lit up the scoreboard more than any team in the NFL (and are second to the Patriots in points per game). But they are struggling to win the time of possession battle. What happens when you lose the time of possession battle? Your defense gets tired at the end of the game and you have a hard time closing out your opponent. Now, if you score 60 a game and your opponent has only 20 going into the 4^th quarter, you can afford a tired defense. But that rarely happens in the NFL.

You’d usually suspect that to control the clock, you either need a precise and effective short passing game or, more conventionally, a power running game. The Titans, however, have neither. Vince Young is, by the eyeball measure, about ten times more effective down the field than with short passes. And Chris Johnson, by objective measure, is not the pound-it-out running back who can help you run out the clock. He’s either not gaining any yards, or breaking a long one for a TD. Not exactly a good way to chew up clock.

And the Titans are getting in trouble in the second half because the defense is spending more time on the field than the offense. (Let’s ignore the Pittsburgh game, because I think we can all agree the Titans got whipped in every facet of that game. We didn’t deserve to win.) So let’s look at the other two losses, Denver and San Diego. In each of these two games, the Titans held the ball for less than 10 minutes in the second half, allowing 16 points to Denver and 19 points to San Diego. Both teams overcame 4^th quarter deficits to win.

What’s happening in the second half is the Titans are employing the standard Jeff Fisher approach to winning: once you have a lead, sit on it. We run at least twice per series. That’s usually first and second down. And usually the defense stops CJ for just a couple of yards and we are faced with third and long. The hardest passing situation for a quarterback is a 3^rd and long off of two runs (I didn’t make that up, I heard it from an expert). So we are not gaining any yards and making it difficult for Vince to convert on third down. The result: lots of 3-and-outs. Then what? Defense is back on the field, with virtually no rest. Then cue the other team’s 4^th quarter comeback.

So what can the Titans do to improve? It’s simple. Pass first. Vince Young’s passing has been more consistently effective than Chris Johnson’s running. Not that it’s CJ’s fault; defenses are stacking the box and shutting him down. And Vince is making them pay. He leads the NFL in yards per completion and is second in yards per attempt and QB rating. So the Titans need to capitalize on this opportunity.

So if we pass first, we’re going to get more first downs. First downs are how you keep drives alive, chew up clock, and give your defense rest. Not (necessarily) running the ball. If we can have more success in the second half, not only do we have a better chance of tacking on a few more points, but we are going to keep our defense more rested. Because anything is better than a 3-and-out.

You may say that passing is dangerous because an interception can turn the game around. But Vince Young has not turned the ball over since the loss to Pittsburgh. Is there anything else he can do to assure you he is safer with the ball? And you may say that incompletions stop the clock, so what good is that? But I’d rather get three first downs through the air with a few incompletions tossed in than keep the clock moving on three 2-yard runs, wouldn’t you?

I’m not saying pass only. Of course you want to pepper some CJ in the mix, too. I’m just saying anything is better than 3-and-out, and right now, we are much more likely to get first downs by passing the ball.

And you never know, maybe if we’re throwing the ball, we’ll accidentally score a touchdown and pad our lead. That’d be nice too, right? 

A Few Short Thoughts

It’s been a week since we last posted, so we’re throwing some stuff out there. Kind of a quick hits or short takes or whatever you want to call them.

1. On the subject of the violent hits. Rodney Harrison, on last Sunday’s Football Night in America (NBC), said that when he was a player, fines didn’t get his attention; suspensions did. This is huge. The NFL has been fining players for all sorts of infractions, but it doesn’t ever seem to discourage their behavior. Suspensions? Now you’re talking!

Also, how about making sure the referees throw some flags on these hits? Players don’t want to hurt their teams’ chances of winning with penalties (well, except for the Cowboys). If players KNOW they will be penalized for these hits during the game, it may give them an incentive to cut it out. This weekend’s games will be the first insight we have into how the crackdown will affect the game.

2. The Titans might be without Vince Young on Sunday, due to ankle and knee sprains he suffered after fumbling a snap on the second series in Jacksonville. Everyone is talking about the injury, but how about the way he got it? He fumbled the snap, and instead of just FALLING on it, he picks it up and tries to get a few extra yards. Vince – you’re health is important to this team, please don’t ever do that again. Just fall on it and curl up in the fetal position.

And if Kerry Collins is the starter, I will be extremely concerned about our offense. Yes, we scored pretty successfully against Jacksonville, but they’re not as good as Philadelphia. Particularly, Kerry’s presence (or rather, VY’s lack of presence) makes it more difficult for Chris Johnson because teams are not afraid of the play-action bootleg. Kerry is also not as likely to throw the ball down the field, which just brings the defense up, again making it more difficult for Johnson. Finally, it seems that the Titans are almost completely ineffective in the red zone with Collins at the helm. I predict a lot of field goals if Collins starts. Let’s just hope the defense can have a great game, particularly with some point-stealing turnovers.

3. Baseball playoffs! First mention of other sports on this blog. Rangers and Giants up 3-2 on the favored Yankees and Phillies, respectively. The Rangers offense looks great, and having Cliff Lee to go in Game 7 is a luxury. And if it goes to 7, and Cliff Lee throws another gem like he did in game three, he will be very close to being considered the best postseason pitcher of all time. Perhaps a couple of gems in the World Series (which would give him 10 or 11 wins and zero losses in the postseason) could seal the deal. The Giants on the other hand, don’t seem to be in as good of a position, having to win the series on the road and not having their ace (Big Time Timmy Jims) in the hole. And while I am rooting for the Giants because they’re the underdog, it would be sweet to see the Phillies face Cliff Lee, a guy whom they got rid of despite the fact that he was the only pitcher Philly had in last year’s World Series who could beat the Yankees.

Another thing about baseball. Earlier in the playoffs (or maybe before they started, I don’t quite remember), ESPN’s Baseball Tonight had an ex-umpire (unfortunately I cannot remember his name) on the show to talk about certain aspects of the game from the umpire’s perspective. It was very interesting and offered a lot of insight into how the umpire actually affects the game (and how the game can affect the way he can perform his job). I would love to see this sort of thing on NFL Live and NBA Fast Break (the NFL and NBA versions of Baseball Tonight). Officiating is an integral part of the game and although we might hope that the officials don’t put their own personal stamp on every game, the truth is that they probably do. It would be very interesting to see ex-referees from the NFL talk about how Peyton Manning’s style of play makes it more or less difficult to officiate than, say, Vince Young’s. Or to hear what an ex-official from the NBA thinks about officiating Kobe Bryant as opposed to Paul Pierce, or Dwight Howard as opposed to Tim Duncan. Just a thought. 

The Media-Hog Power Rankings

I understand that ESPN and other national-level sports networks are committed to making money, which generally means stories that the most people want to read/hear. I understand New York is always going to get a lot of coverage on their teams. I understand the Cowboys are “America’s Team” and are going to get a lot of coverage during the NFL season. And I begrudgingly understand and accept that the Titans are not going to get much coverage unless they do something extra special (or extremely stupid).

But is it too much to ask to tone down the coverage of the teams that are either a) surprisingly bad or b) just plain bad? Aren’t we far enough into the season to just let the bad teams struggle quietly? I mean, how obnoxious would it be if the game getting the most coverage around late November were a game between the 4-6 Seahawks and the 1-9 Rams (see: Week 12, 2009)? Well it’s only the sixth week this year, but all this talk about the Panic Bowl (Dallas (1-3) @ Minnesota (1-3)) is a little too much. Shouldn’t you do something good to earn everyone’s attention?

Given that I’m a Titans fan, you might think I’m just clamoring for more attention, but I assure you that’s not the case. Do I think the Titans have some storylines that could be just as interesting football-wise if they just got a little coverage? Of course (that’s kind of the point of this blog). But I don’t really think ESPN would ever want to give us more coverage unless we did something special. Something like having a 2,000-yard running back. Or benching your starting quarterback down two scores after 3 quarters in the second game of the season…

So just for fun, I’m giving you the top 12 media-hog teams so far this season. Also the bottom 3. These rankings are imprecise and based on my own experience, not any actual facts. And I realize that by doing this, I'm kind of just being a hypocrite by giving attention to teams who I say are already getting too much. But whatever. 

The Media-Hog Power Rankings. Which teams does the media love the most? And do they deserve it?

1. Minnesota Vikings --- Brett Favre, Brett Favre, Brett Favre, they just traded for Randy Moss, they're 1-3, Brett Favre's arm, Brett Favre. This team has hijacked ESPN's NFL coverage. A football ignoramus watching ESPN might think they are the only team in the league if it weren't for the. . . 

2. Dallas Cowboys --- What is wrong with the Cowboys? Is Wade's job safe? They were a popular Super Bowl pick but they're struggling, and no one seems to have any answers other than "just play better."

3. New York Jets --- This team is going to be top-5 in media-hogging all year, thanks to Hard Knocks, Coach Loudmouth, and the fact that they have "New York" before their name. If they lose a game, we'll have to listen to more reassurances about this team going to the Super Bowl and more doubters declaring that Mark Sanchez actually is NOT any good (can we just make up our mind on him?). If they keep winning, we'll be force-fed "the Jets are good at everything because they've bought into Rex Ryan's philosophy and Mark Sanchez is awesome" talk. Yuck.

4. Pittsburgh Steelers --- Okay, Big Ben coming back is a reasonably big deal. And their defense does actually deserve to be talked about. But I haven't heard a single analyst mention any specific thing an offense can do to beat them. Are they suggesting the Steelers D has no flaws or weaknesses? Come on. That's ridiculous. 

5. New England Patriots --- They trade Randy Moss. Okay, big news. But Justin Beiber making fun of Tom Brady's hair? How is ESPN okay with airing that garbage?

6. San Francisco 49ers --- A few years ago, when they were just plain bad and didn't have Mad Man Mike (whom I actually like -- I really hope he doesn't get fired) at the helm, ESPN didn't seem to care about this team. Now, they're that annoying 0-5 Super Bowl pick that gets more attention than teams who are actually doing something right. This team was 8-8 last year, with three of those wins coming against the Rams and Lions, who combined to win 3 games themselves. Why did anyone think the 49ers were any good to begin with?

7. Baltimore Ravens --- This team actually seems pretty good. Everyone is considering them as top-5 in the league, but as I learned today, they are second worst in the NFL in turnover margin. Seems like a perfect reason to doubt them. But hey, if they have a good record, everything must be fine, right? 

8. New York Giants --- After the Titans game, the media was hitting the panic button for them. Now, they're "the best team no one is talking about." What gives? You win two games and now everything is all good? 

9. Indianapolis Colts --- They've got some problems (running offense, run defense), but no one would be talking about them if Josh Scobee doesn't hit that 59-yard, Rob Bironas-esque, game-winning kick last week. 

10. Philadelphia Eagles --- If it weren't for injuries to their quarterbacks basically making their decisions for them, this team would be talked about much more, as evidenced by Andy Reid's decision to start Mike Vick in the second game and stick with him and the hours upon hours of debate that ensued. 

11. Chicago Bears --- Are they for real? No. But to be fair, the defense is very good.

12. New Orleans Saints --- Another Super Bowl champ who has no more magic the next year. By the way, this team was 8-8 two years ago, and 7-9 the year before that. Maybe the anomaly with this team is last year, and not the last month? 

And the black sheep. . . 

30. Jacksonville Jaguars --- They're 3-2. Unfortunately, if you can't even get local fans to come to the game, you will probably not get any of ESPN's time. Nor should you. 

31. Carolina Panthers --- Makes sense because they haven't won any games and are located somewhere in the Carolinas (North, Charlotte). But you would think they would get a little more coverage because Jimmy Clausen was a pretty talked-about guy in college. Although he did go to Notre Dame, which is basically the Dallas Cowboys of college football. 

32. Buffalo Bills --- They don't deserve any coverage. This team is awful. 

2,500 yards is out, but what about back-to-back 2,000 yard seasons for Johnson?

It's safe to say that Chris Johnson will not rush for his goal of 2,500 yards this season following his 2,006-yard campaign last year. That being said, rushing for 2,000 yards in back-to-back seasons would still be an amazing feat. It's never been done before. If he succeeds, he will have strung together the best two-year rushing performance in NFL history. With back-to-back 2,000-yard campaigns, Johnson will already merit Hall of Fame consideration, even if he never played another snap.

So, where does he stand now?

In five games this year, Johnson has carried the ball 113 times for 485 yards and 4.3 yards per carry. The going has gotten tougher for him this year with teams stacking the box with eight and nine defenders—his ypc is down over a yard from 5.6 ypc last season.

In order to reach 2,000 yards for a second year in a row, Johnson must average 137.7 yards per game over the next eleven games. If his current 4.3 ypc were to remain constant, he would need just over 32 carries per game to reach 2,000. The Titans have already showed signs that they intend to limit his workload and not risk wearing him down for this season, and future seasons for that matter. Therefore, the only way Johnson is going to get back to 2,000 is to dramatically increase his ypc.

Perhaps the best way to gauge whether Johnson has a chance of reaching the 2,000-yard plateau is to compare his performance in early 2009 to the beginning of this season. The running back did not really get on a roll last season until after week six, when Vince Young was inserted into the starting lineup and defenses had to prepare for a dual rushing threat.

While he has gotten more carries this season, Johnson is actually ahead of where he was last season at the same time by 17 yards. Last season, Johnson averaged 139.8 yards per game over the last eleven games of the season. A truly phenomenal level of production would be required, but Johnson has proven he is capable of putting up those numbers.

I'm not saying Johnson is going to make it, nor am I suggesting that force-feeding him the ball in order to give him a chance is a good idea. Winning games is most important. Titans fans would rather win 13 games with Johnson rushing for 1,400 yards than win eight with him rushing for 2,000. That being said: do not count him out. It says here he will make things interesting by the end of the year.

Fish Out of Water?

I love analogies. I try to make analogies whenever I can, sometimes because they’re effective, sometimes to make the point I’m arguing against seem ridiculously extreme, and sometimes just because they’re fun. So bear with me here. The analogy I am about to propose is a little odd, but I think it holds water (pun intended, as you’ll see)…

The coming weeks of the Titans season is going to reveal to us whether the Tennessee coach is a Fish(er) out of water or an amphibian making the move from gills to lungs. If he is the former, the Titans are going to resemble a fish flopping on the deck. If he is the latter, the Titans could flourish. Let me explain (with help from some stats presented in a titansonline.com article).

Jeff Fisher has always preached controlling the clock. Across the first 15 seasons of Fisher’s tenure, ball control was everything; the Titans rank third in time of possession over that span. Fisher wants to run out the clock as soon as he gets the lead. It’s a reasonable philosophy. If you have the ball, the other team can’t score, your defense stays rested, and you wear down the opponent’s defense. With Eddie George, the Titans wore down opposing defenses all the way to the Super Bowl. This era corresponds to the Fish(er) living in the water, using its gills.

Fast forward to 2010. The Titans now boast an explosive running game with Chris Johnson and QB Vince Young is pretty good at slinging the ball down the field. They are not equipped to run out the clock. Chris Johnson is not the three-yards-and-a-cloud-of-dust running back that Eddie George was. And it shows: Titans’ time of possession has dropped each of the past three years, corresponding with the arrival of CJ and his increased prevalence in the offense. The Titans’ average time of possession is now over three minutes below the league average.

But this decline does not correspond to a lack of offensive production. Johnson ran for 2,006 yards last year, and the Titans current rank fifth in the NFL in scoring.  The metamorphosis is obvious: the Titans are no longer the pound-it-out team that Fisher has had for so long. The question is whether Fisher can adapt to the big-play offense he now has. In terms of the analogy, the Fish(er) has moved onto land. Will he develop lungs or stick with gills and just flop around?

In the Broncos game two weeks ago, Fisher tried to stick with his old Eddie George offense and it backfired. The Titans offense couldn’t stay on the field, and consequently, the defense wore down and allowed the Broncos to come back and win. The following week at Dallas, the Titans slung it around effectively, opening up room for CJ in the process. Titans win, 34-27.

It’s clear this team is built to be a much more aggressive offense than Fisher is used to, so whether or not this team is successful largely depends on whether Fisher is willing to utilize his new team’s strengths. If Fisher can make the adjustment, he will prove to be an amphibian (literally “on both sides of life”) in the football world. If not, he will prove to be just a Fish(er) out of water, the Titans will flop, and their 2010 season will die. 

NFL coaches, on if they are going to win a lot of games this season. AFC Edition

AFC North

Mike Tomlin, Pittsburgh Steelers – I just went 3-1 with Dennis Dixon and Charlie Batch. I don't need a quarterback to win football games.

John Harbaugh, Baltimore Ravens – We better, or Ray Lewis is going to shank me in the parking lot.

Marvin Lewis, Cincinatti Bengals – If we win, it will have NOTHING to do with Carson Palmer.

Eric Mangini, Cleveland Browns – Remember when people called me Man-genius? Well, I do.

AFC South

Jack Del Rio, Jacksonville Jaguars – We might win, but with the blackouts and half capacity home crowds, who’s gonna find out?

Jim Caldwell, Indianapolis Colts – Ask Peyton Manning. He may be able to give you some information.

Jeff Fisher, Tennessee Titans – Is 8-8 winning?

Gary Kubiac, Houston Texans – Everyone seems to think so… before the season starts.

AFC West

Todd Haley, Kansas City Chiefs – You should have asked me last week.

Tom Cable, Oakland Raiders – I beat my girlfriend last night. Does that count?

Norv Turner, San Diego Chargers – If we win, it will have NOTHING to do with me.

Josh McDaniels, Denver Broncos – Kyle and I are going to be in Dallas this February… it’s gonna be a huge party.

AFC East

Bill Belichick, New England Patriots – It's not as easy to win when you don’t know what plays are coming.

Rex Ryan, New York Jets – Only thing I'm going to lose is weight. Actually, never mind, that's probably not going to happen.

Tony Sparano, Miami Dolphins – I don't know. I really can't see anything through these sunglasses. Hey, did we win last week?

Chan Gailey, Buffalo Bills – We’re probably not even going to beat the spread.

Verner Should Start, Even If McCourty is Healthy

Will Fisher See The Light?

In a matter of weeks, perhaps less time, Titans brass is going to face a decision: when Jason McCourty recovers from a fractured forearm he suffered in a week three win over the New York Giants, should Alterraun Verner retain his starting cornerback job, or should McCourty, who captured the starting role following a fierce training camp battle against the rookie, be thrown back into the action?

I think the answer to this question is obvious. Yes, McCourty started and played full games in weeks one and two, and he did not make any glaring mistakes. He was solid—there is no denying it. But consider this: first, Verner, a 2010 fourth-round draft choice out of UCLA, pushed the second-year pro for the starting role even though he was a rookie. Secondly, during two full games as a starter, he has been equally solid. He has not given up any big plays nor has he made any glaring mistakes—leave that to Michael Griffin and Ryan Mouton. The only difference: unlike McCourty, Verner has replicated his training camp and preseason habit of making game-altering plays. He just seems to have a nose for the football.

In last week's upset win over the Dallas Cowboys, Verner intercepted a tipped Tony Romo pass with the game tied at 20 in the fourth quarter and returned it to the one-yard line. On the next play, Chris Johnson scored a one-yard touchdown to open up the game for the Titans at 27-20. While the Cowboys would later tie the game at 27, Verner’s pick was critical. It kept the Titans ahead of the Cowboys and bought valuable time while the offense sputtered.

Said Verner, in the post-game press conference: “It was a perfect coverage for us...I did my job and I stayed with the outside guy. I saw the ball tipped by one of our defensive lineman and that allowed me to convert from making the tackle to trying to get a pick...”

We need his eye for the ball. Fielding players with a nose for the football is critical if the Titans defense is to succeed. The Titans' conservative strategy on defense is heavily reliant on zone coverages that force opposing offenses to push the ball down the field on long drives without making mistakes. If we are going to win with this defensive philosophy, then we need defenders who can capitalize on miscues, when and if they occur. Verner has proven to be such a player during the preseason and his limited time as starter in the regular season.

Also, consider the competition that these two cornerbacks have battled against. Jason McCourty played error free and failed to yield any huge pass completions while playing full games against the Oakland Raiders in week one and the Pittsburgh Steelers in week two. In week one, McCourty found himself in coverage against a truly dismal quarterback in Jason Cambell, who since has been benched for the slightly less anemic Bruce Gradkowski. In week two, McCourty faced the less-than-dynamic quarterback duo of Dennis Dixon and Charlie Batch. You get the idea. In two games as a full time starter, McCourty was not tested by a potent passing offense¾or even a competent one for that matter.

Verner, on the other hand, faced vastly better competition in his two starts, offenses with capable quarterbacks who consistently push the ball down the field to proven, big-play receivers. Kyle Orton and the Denver Broncos possess the second-rated passing offense in the NFL; Romo’s Cowboys possess the third-rated passing offensive in the league.

We must also consider that, during the Titans win over the Cowboys, Dallas QB Tony Romo consistently threw to Cortland Finnegan's side of the field and Finnegan gave up far more long pass plays than Verner. This is not by chance. NFL coaches know when a rookie is on the field, and if they believe he is not ready for NFL action, they will target him and make him prove otherwise. By consistently challenging Finnegan instead of Verner, Dallas revealed that they respect his coverage skills and ball instincts.

Fans of normal NFL franchises with head coaches who value talent and performance foremost would need not be concerned. Such coaches would, if faced with a similar situation, continue to start a rookie who has outperformed the starter, prospered against better competition, and produced game-changing plays. However, when asked about the subject during his Monday, October 11, press conference, Fisher was non-committal:

“As I said, the race was very, very close to start with, and I'm not saying that Jason isn't going to come back and be our starter,” Fisher said. “But they've both played very well throughout training camp and the preseason.”

Nothing is certain with Jeff Fisher. This is a head coach who consistently yields to seniority in similar situations—running back Eddie George and cornerback Nick Harper are but two memorable examples. It will be truly interesting to what happens here. Should Fisher give the starting role back to McCourty despite Verner's accomplishments in recent weeks, Fisher will have demonstrated one more time that he values loyalty to veteran players over his team's chances of winning football games. And that is a rookie mistake.