It's safe to say that Chris Johnson will not rush for his goal of 2,500 yards this season following his 2,006-yard campaign last year. That being said, rushing for 2,000 yards in back-to-back seasons would still be an amazing feat. It's never been done before. If he succeeds, he will have strung together the best two-year rushing performance in NFL history. With back-to-back 2,000-yard campaigns, Johnson will already merit Hall of Fame consideration, even if he never played another snap.
So, where does he stand now?
In five games this year, Johnson has carried the ball 113 times for 485 yards and 4.3 yards per carry. The going has gotten tougher for him this year with teams stacking the box with eight and nine defenders—his ypc is down over a yard from 5.6 ypc last season.
In order to reach 2,000 yards for a second year in a row, Johnson must average 137.7 yards per game over the next eleven games. If his current 4.3 ypc were to remain constant, he would need just over 32 carries per game to reach 2,000. The Titans have already showed signs that they intend to limit his workload and not risk wearing him down for this season, and future seasons for that matter. Therefore, the only way Johnson is going to get back to 2,000 is to dramatically increase his ypc.
Perhaps the best way to gauge whether Johnson has a chance of reaching the 2,000-yard plateau is to compare his performance in early 2009 to the beginning of this season. The running back did not really get on a roll last season until after week six, when Vince Young was inserted into the starting lineup and defenses had to prepare for a dual rushing threat.
While he has gotten more carries this season, Johnson is actually ahead of where he was last season at the same time by 17 yards. Last season, Johnson averaged 139.8 yards per game over the last eleven games of the season. A truly phenomenal level of production would be required, but Johnson has proven he is capable of putting up those numbers.
I'm not saying Johnson is going to make it, nor am I suggesting that force-feeding him the ball in order to give him a chance is a good idea. Winning games is most important. Titans fans would rather win 13 games with Johnson rushing for 1,400 yards than win eight with him rushing for 2,000. That being said: do not count him out. It says here he will make things interesting by the end of the year.
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