A Few Short Thoughts

It’s been a week since we last posted, so we’re throwing some stuff out there. Kind of a quick hits or short takes or whatever you want to call them.

1. On the subject of the violent hits. Rodney Harrison, on last Sunday’s Football Night in America (NBC), said that when he was a player, fines didn’t get his attention; suspensions did. This is huge. The NFL has been fining players for all sorts of infractions, but it doesn’t ever seem to discourage their behavior. Suspensions? Now you’re talking!

Also, how about making sure the referees throw some flags on these hits? Players don’t want to hurt their teams’ chances of winning with penalties (well, except for the Cowboys). If players KNOW they will be penalized for these hits during the game, it may give them an incentive to cut it out. This weekend’s games will be the first insight we have into how the crackdown will affect the game.

2. The Titans might be without Vince Young on Sunday, due to ankle and knee sprains he suffered after fumbling a snap on the second series in Jacksonville. Everyone is talking about the injury, but how about the way he got it? He fumbled the snap, and instead of just FALLING on it, he picks it up and tries to get a few extra yards. Vince – you’re health is important to this team, please don’t ever do that again. Just fall on it and curl up in the fetal position.

And if Kerry Collins is the starter, I will be extremely concerned about our offense. Yes, we scored pretty successfully against Jacksonville, but they’re not as good as Philadelphia. Particularly, Kerry’s presence (or rather, VY’s lack of presence) makes it more difficult for Chris Johnson because teams are not afraid of the play-action bootleg. Kerry is also not as likely to throw the ball down the field, which just brings the defense up, again making it more difficult for Johnson. Finally, it seems that the Titans are almost completely ineffective in the red zone with Collins at the helm. I predict a lot of field goals if Collins starts. Let’s just hope the defense can have a great game, particularly with some point-stealing turnovers.

3. Baseball playoffs! First mention of other sports on this blog. Rangers and Giants up 3-2 on the favored Yankees and Phillies, respectively. The Rangers offense looks great, and having Cliff Lee to go in Game 7 is a luxury. And if it goes to 7, and Cliff Lee throws another gem like he did in game three, he will be very close to being considered the best postseason pitcher of all time. Perhaps a couple of gems in the World Series (which would give him 10 or 11 wins and zero losses in the postseason) could seal the deal. The Giants on the other hand, don’t seem to be in as good of a position, having to win the series on the road and not having their ace (Big Time Timmy Jims) in the hole. And while I am rooting for the Giants because they’re the underdog, it would be sweet to see the Phillies face Cliff Lee, a guy whom they got rid of despite the fact that he was the only pitcher Philly had in last year’s World Series who could beat the Yankees.

Another thing about baseball. Earlier in the playoffs (or maybe before they started, I don’t quite remember), ESPN’s Baseball Tonight had an ex-umpire (unfortunately I cannot remember his name) on the show to talk about certain aspects of the game from the umpire’s perspective. It was very interesting and offered a lot of insight into how the umpire actually affects the game (and how the game can affect the way he can perform his job). I would love to see this sort of thing on NFL Live and NBA Fast Break (the NFL and NBA versions of Baseball Tonight). Officiating is an integral part of the game and although we might hope that the officials don’t put their own personal stamp on every game, the truth is that they probably do. It would be very interesting to see ex-referees from the NFL talk about how Peyton Manning’s style of play makes it more or less difficult to officiate than, say, Vince Young’s. Or to hear what an ex-official from the NBA thinks about officiating Kobe Bryant as opposed to Paul Pierce, or Dwight Howard as opposed to Tim Duncan. Just a thought. 

The Media-Hog Power Rankings

I understand that ESPN and other national-level sports networks are committed to making money, which generally means stories that the most people want to read/hear. I understand New York is always going to get a lot of coverage on their teams. I understand the Cowboys are “America’s Team” and are going to get a lot of coverage during the NFL season. And I begrudgingly understand and accept that the Titans are not going to get much coverage unless they do something extra special (or extremely stupid).

But is it too much to ask to tone down the coverage of the teams that are either a) surprisingly bad or b) just plain bad? Aren’t we far enough into the season to just let the bad teams struggle quietly? I mean, how obnoxious would it be if the game getting the most coverage around late November were a game between the 4-6 Seahawks and the 1-9 Rams (see: Week 12, 2009)? Well it’s only the sixth week this year, but all this talk about the Panic Bowl (Dallas (1-3) @ Minnesota (1-3)) is a little too much. Shouldn’t you do something good to earn everyone’s attention?

Given that I’m a Titans fan, you might think I’m just clamoring for more attention, but I assure you that’s not the case. Do I think the Titans have some storylines that could be just as interesting football-wise if they just got a little coverage? Of course (that’s kind of the point of this blog). But I don’t really think ESPN would ever want to give us more coverage unless we did something special. Something like having a 2,000-yard running back. Or benching your starting quarterback down two scores after 3 quarters in the second game of the season…

So just for fun, I’m giving you the top 12 media-hog teams so far this season. Also the bottom 3. These rankings are imprecise and based on my own experience, not any actual facts. And I realize that by doing this, I'm kind of just being a hypocrite by giving attention to teams who I say are already getting too much. But whatever. 

The Media-Hog Power Rankings. Which teams does the media love the most? And do they deserve it?

1. Minnesota Vikings --- Brett Favre, Brett Favre, Brett Favre, they just traded for Randy Moss, they're 1-3, Brett Favre's arm, Brett Favre. This team has hijacked ESPN's NFL coverage. A football ignoramus watching ESPN might think they are the only team in the league if it weren't for the. . . 

2. Dallas Cowboys --- What is wrong with the Cowboys? Is Wade's job safe? They were a popular Super Bowl pick but they're struggling, and no one seems to have any answers other than "just play better."

3. New York Jets --- This team is going to be top-5 in media-hogging all year, thanks to Hard Knocks, Coach Loudmouth, and the fact that they have "New York" before their name. If they lose a game, we'll have to listen to more reassurances about this team going to the Super Bowl and more doubters declaring that Mark Sanchez actually is NOT any good (can we just make up our mind on him?). If they keep winning, we'll be force-fed "the Jets are good at everything because they've bought into Rex Ryan's philosophy and Mark Sanchez is awesome" talk. Yuck.

4. Pittsburgh Steelers --- Okay, Big Ben coming back is a reasonably big deal. And their defense does actually deserve to be talked about. But I haven't heard a single analyst mention any specific thing an offense can do to beat them. Are they suggesting the Steelers D has no flaws or weaknesses? Come on. That's ridiculous. 

5. New England Patriots --- They trade Randy Moss. Okay, big news. But Justin Beiber making fun of Tom Brady's hair? How is ESPN okay with airing that garbage?

6. San Francisco 49ers --- A few years ago, when they were just plain bad and didn't have Mad Man Mike (whom I actually like -- I really hope he doesn't get fired) at the helm, ESPN didn't seem to care about this team. Now, they're that annoying 0-5 Super Bowl pick that gets more attention than teams who are actually doing something right. This team was 8-8 last year, with three of those wins coming against the Rams and Lions, who combined to win 3 games themselves. Why did anyone think the 49ers were any good to begin with?

7. Baltimore Ravens --- This team actually seems pretty good. Everyone is considering them as top-5 in the league, but as I learned today, they are second worst in the NFL in turnover margin. Seems like a perfect reason to doubt them. But hey, if they have a good record, everything must be fine, right? 

8. New York Giants --- After the Titans game, the media was hitting the panic button for them. Now, they're "the best team no one is talking about." What gives? You win two games and now everything is all good? 

9. Indianapolis Colts --- They've got some problems (running offense, run defense), but no one would be talking about them if Josh Scobee doesn't hit that 59-yard, Rob Bironas-esque, game-winning kick last week. 

10. Philadelphia Eagles --- If it weren't for injuries to their quarterbacks basically making their decisions for them, this team would be talked about much more, as evidenced by Andy Reid's decision to start Mike Vick in the second game and stick with him and the hours upon hours of debate that ensued. 

11. Chicago Bears --- Are they for real? No. But to be fair, the defense is very good.

12. New Orleans Saints --- Another Super Bowl champ who has no more magic the next year. By the way, this team was 8-8 two years ago, and 7-9 the year before that. Maybe the anomaly with this team is last year, and not the last month? 

And the black sheep. . . 

30. Jacksonville Jaguars --- They're 3-2. Unfortunately, if you can't even get local fans to come to the game, you will probably not get any of ESPN's time. Nor should you. 

31. Carolina Panthers --- Makes sense because they haven't won any games and are located somewhere in the Carolinas (North, Charlotte). But you would think they would get a little more coverage because Jimmy Clausen was a pretty talked-about guy in college. Although he did go to Notre Dame, which is basically the Dallas Cowboys of college football. 

32. Buffalo Bills --- They don't deserve any coverage. This team is awful. 

2,500 yards is out, but what about back-to-back 2,000 yard seasons for Johnson?

It's safe to say that Chris Johnson will not rush for his goal of 2,500 yards this season following his 2,006-yard campaign last year. That being said, rushing for 2,000 yards in back-to-back seasons would still be an amazing feat. It's never been done before. If he succeeds, he will have strung together the best two-year rushing performance in NFL history. With back-to-back 2,000-yard campaigns, Johnson will already merit Hall of Fame consideration, even if he never played another snap.

So, where does he stand now?

In five games this year, Johnson has carried the ball 113 times for 485 yards and 4.3 yards per carry. The going has gotten tougher for him this year with teams stacking the box with eight and nine defenders—his ypc is down over a yard from 5.6 ypc last season.

In order to reach 2,000 yards for a second year in a row, Johnson must average 137.7 yards per game over the next eleven games. If his current 4.3 ypc were to remain constant, he would need just over 32 carries per game to reach 2,000. The Titans have already showed signs that they intend to limit his workload and not risk wearing him down for this season, and future seasons for that matter. Therefore, the only way Johnson is going to get back to 2,000 is to dramatically increase his ypc.

Perhaps the best way to gauge whether Johnson has a chance of reaching the 2,000-yard plateau is to compare his performance in early 2009 to the beginning of this season. The running back did not really get on a roll last season until after week six, when Vince Young was inserted into the starting lineup and defenses had to prepare for a dual rushing threat.

While he has gotten more carries this season, Johnson is actually ahead of where he was last season at the same time by 17 yards. Last season, Johnson averaged 139.8 yards per game over the last eleven games of the season. A truly phenomenal level of production would be required, but Johnson has proven he is capable of putting up those numbers.

I'm not saying Johnson is going to make it, nor am I suggesting that force-feeding him the ball in order to give him a chance is a good idea. Winning games is most important. Titans fans would rather win 13 games with Johnson rushing for 1,400 yards than win eight with him rushing for 2,000. That being said: do not count him out. It says here he will make things interesting by the end of the year.

Fish Out of Water?

I love analogies. I try to make analogies whenever I can, sometimes because they’re effective, sometimes to make the point I’m arguing against seem ridiculously extreme, and sometimes just because they’re fun. So bear with me here. The analogy I am about to propose is a little odd, but I think it holds water (pun intended, as you’ll see)…

The coming weeks of the Titans season is going to reveal to us whether the Tennessee coach is a Fish(er) out of water or an amphibian making the move from gills to lungs. If he is the former, the Titans are going to resemble a fish flopping on the deck. If he is the latter, the Titans could flourish. Let me explain (with help from some stats presented in a titansonline.com article).

Jeff Fisher has always preached controlling the clock. Across the first 15 seasons of Fisher’s tenure, ball control was everything; the Titans rank third in time of possession over that span. Fisher wants to run out the clock as soon as he gets the lead. It’s a reasonable philosophy. If you have the ball, the other team can’t score, your defense stays rested, and you wear down the opponent’s defense. With Eddie George, the Titans wore down opposing defenses all the way to the Super Bowl. This era corresponds to the Fish(er) living in the water, using its gills.

Fast forward to 2010. The Titans now boast an explosive running game with Chris Johnson and QB Vince Young is pretty good at slinging the ball down the field. They are not equipped to run out the clock. Chris Johnson is not the three-yards-and-a-cloud-of-dust running back that Eddie George was. And it shows: Titans’ time of possession has dropped each of the past three years, corresponding with the arrival of CJ and his increased prevalence in the offense. The Titans’ average time of possession is now over three minutes below the league average.

But this decline does not correspond to a lack of offensive production. Johnson ran for 2,006 yards last year, and the Titans current rank fifth in the NFL in scoring.  The metamorphosis is obvious: the Titans are no longer the pound-it-out team that Fisher has had for so long. The question is whether Fisher can adapt to the big-play offense he now has. In terms of the analogy, the Fish(er) has moved onto land. Will he develop lungs or stick with gills and just flop around?

In the Broncos game two weeks ago, Fisher tried to stick with his old Eddie George offense and it backfired. The Titans offense couldn’t stay on the field, and consequently, the defense wore down and allowed the Broncos to come back and win. The following week at Dallas, the Titans slung it around effectively, opening up room for CJ in the process. Titans win, 34-27.

It’s clear this team is built to be a much more aggressive offense than Fisher is used to, so whether or not this team is successful largely depends on whether Fisher is willing to utilize his new team’s strengths. If Fisher can make the adjustment, he will prove to be an amphibian (literally “on both sides of life”) in the football world. If not, he will prove to be just a Fish(er) out of water, the Titans will flop, and their 2010 season will die. 

NFL coaches, on if they are going to win a lot of games this season. AFC Edition

AFC North

Mike Tomlin, Pittsburgh Steelers – I just went 3-1 with Dennis Dixon and Charlie Batch. I don't need a quarterback to win football games.

John Harbaugh, Baltimore Ravens – We better, or Ray Lewis is going to shank me in the parking lot.

Marvin Lewis, Cincinatti Bengals – If we win, it will have NOTHING to do with Carson Palmer.

Eric Mangini, Cleveland Browns – Remember when people called me Man-genius? Well, I do.

AFC South

Jack Del Rio, Jacksonville Jaguars – We might win, but with the blackouts and half capacity home crowds, who’s gonna find out?

Jim Caldwell, Indianapolis Colts – Ask Peyton Manning. He may be able to give you some information.

Jeff Fisher, Tennessee Titans – Is 8-8 winning?

Gary Kubiac, Houston Texans – Everyone seems to think so… before the season starts.

AFC West

Todd Haley, Kansas City Chiefs – You should have asked me last week.

Tom Cable, Oakland Raiders – I beat my girlfriend last night. Does that count?

Norv Turner, San Diego Chargers – If we win, it will have NOTHING to do with me.

Josh McDaniels, Denver Broncos – Kyle and I are going to be in Dallas this February… it’s gonna be a huge party.

AFC East

Bill Belichick, New England Patriots – It's not as easy to win when you don’t know what plays are coming.

Rex Ryan, New York Jets – Only thing I'm going to lose is weight. Actually, never mind, that's probably not going to happen.

Tony Sparano, Miami Dolphins – I don't know. I really can't see anything through these sunglasses. Hey, did we win last week?

Chan Gailey, Buffalo Bills – We’re probably not even going to beat the spread.

Verner Should Start, Even If McCourty is Healthy

Will Fisher See The Light?

In a matter of weeks, perhaps less time, Titans brass is going to face a decision: when Jason McCourty recovers from a fractured forearm he suffered in a week three win over the New York Giants, should Alterraun Verner retain his starting cornerback job, or should McCourty, who captured the starting role following a fierce training camp battle against the rookie, be thrown back into the action?

I think the answer to this question is obvious. Yes, McCourty started and played full games in weeks one and two, and he did not make any glaring mistakes. He was solid—there is no denying it. But consider this: first, Verner, a 2010 fourth-round draft choice out of UCLA, pushed the second-year pro for the starting role even though he was a rookie. Secondly, during two full games as a starter, he has been equally solid. He has not given up any big plays nor has he made any glaring mistakes—leave that to Michael Griffin and Ryan Mouton. The only difference: unlike McCourty, Verner has replicated his training camp and preseason habit of making game-altering plays. He just seems to have a nose for the football.

In last week's upset win over the Dallas Cowboys, Verner intercepted a tipped Tony Romo pass with the game tied at 20 in the fourth quarter and returned it to the one-yard line. On the next play, Chris Johnson scored a one-yard touchdown to open up the game for the Titans at 27-20. While the Cowboys would later tie the game at 27, Verner’s pick was critical. It kept the Titans ahead of the Cowboys and bought valuable time while the offense sputtered.

Said Verner, in the post-game press conference: “It was a perfect coverage for us...I did my job and I stayed with the outside guy. I saw the ball tipped by one of our defensive lineman and that allowed me to convert from making the tackle to trying to get a pick...”

We need his eye for the ball. Fielding players with a nose for the football is critical if the Titans defense is to succeed. The Titans' conservative strategy on defense is heavily reliant on zone coverages that force opposing offenses to push the ball down the field on long drives without making mistakes. If we are going to win with this defensive philosophy, then we need defenders who can capitalize on miscues, when and if they occur. Verner has proven to be such a player during the preseason and his limited time as starter in the regular season.

Also, consider the competition that these two cornerbacks have battled against. Jason McCourty played error free and failed to yield any huge pass completions while playing full games against the Oakland Raiders in week one and the Pittsburgh Steelers in week two. In week one, McCourty found himself in coverage against a truly dismal quarterback in Jason Cambell, who since has been benched for the slightly less anemic Bruce Gradkowski. In week two, McCourty faced the less-than-dynamic quarterback duo of Dennis Dixon and Charlie Batch. You get the idea. In two games as a full time starter, McCourty was not tested by a potent passing offense¾or even a competent one for that matter.

Verner, on the other hand, faced vastly better competition in his two starts, offenses with capable quarterbacks who consistently push the ball down the field to proven, big-play receivers. Kyle Orton and the Denver Broncos possess the second-rated passing offense in the NFL; Romo’s Cowboys possess the third-rated passing offensive in the league.

We must also consider that, during the Titans win over the Cowboys, Dallas QB Tony Romo consistently threw to Cortland Finnegan's side of the field and Finnegan gave up far more long pass plays than Verner. This is not by chance. NFL coaches know when a rookie is on the field, and if they believe he is not ready for NFL action, they will target him and make him prove otherwise. By consistently challenging Finnegan instead of Verner, Dallas revealed that they respect his coverage skills and ball instincts.

Fans of normal NFL franchises with head coaches who value talent and performance foremost would need not be concerned. Such coaches would, if faced with a similar situation, continue to start a rookie who has outperformed the starter, prospered against better competition, and produced game-changing plays. However, when asked about the subject during his Monday, October 11, press conference, Fisher was non-committal:

“As I said, the race was very, very close to start with, and I'm not saying that Jason isn't going to come back and be our starter,” Fisher said. “But they've both played very well throughout training camp and the preseason.”

Nothing is certain with Jeff Fisher. This is a head coach who consistently yields to seniority in similar situations—running back Eddie George and cornerback Nick Harper are but two memorable examples. It will be truly interesting to what happens here. Should Fisher give the starting role back to McCourty despite Verner's accomplishments in recent weeks, Fisher will have demonstrated one more time that he values loyalty to veteran players over his team's chances of winning football games. And that is a rookie mistake.