Fisher's Punt Call Blows Chance for Upset

I'd love to hear Jeff Fisher talk his way out of this one. That is, if anyone would seriously question him. 

With about 4 minutes to go, the Titans were down 6, with the ball, on about their own 30. Fourth-and-1. Punt. This was the wrong call.

We had just forced Peyton Manning to go three-and-out -- what were the odds of stopping him again? Not good. 

You'd probably say that you'd hate to give the Colts the ball on our 30. It would basically guarantee defeat.  But if you punt and still allow a score (they had scored on 5/8 possessions up to that point), you not only allow time to run off the clock, but you also have to use your timeouts... and you probably leave the field in  defeat. 

Either way, we needed a TD and to not allow any points. The best way to do that is to keep the ball, not punt it back to Peyton. Either that drive or the next one was going to be our last effort. And presumably a last effort drive is going to require a fourth down conversion. This was fourth-and-1, the easiest of all fourth downs. Why not go ahead and make this our final drive? What's the difference? Fisher basically bet that his defense had a better chance of stopping Manning than his offense did of gaining one single yard. Come on. 

Last year, you might remember, Bill Belicheck and the Patriots were in a similar situation against the Colts. They had the ball around their own 30 near the end of the game. They needed points and faced fourth-and-two. Belicheck chose to go for it. Due to a bad spot (and arguably a bad play call), they didn't get it. 

At first, the football analysts questioned his decision. Then they questioned it some more. We were hearing about that call for the entire week. But Belicheck knew what he was doing. He liked the chances of his offense getting two yards better than of his defense stopping Peyton Manning. Statistics gurus around the web did their thing and validated: Belicheck made the right call. It didn't work, but it was the right call.

If Fisher had chosen to go for it, there's no guarantee we would have gotten it. There's even less of a guarantee we would have scored a touchdown on the drive. But going for it was the right call and no one is going to question Fisher's decision... as usual. 

I mean, Bill Belicheck got criticism for that call. BILL BELICHECK. And that was for making the RIGHT call. What criticism is Jeff Fisher going to get for making the wrong call?

Probably none. 

Because if you've taken a team to the playoffs 5 times in 17 years and have 1 Super Bowl appearance, you must be right. Right?

Thursday Night Musings

1. LeBron is playing in Cleveland tonight. First of all, the fans don't owe him anything. He earned hundreds of millions of dollars playing for them. He earned worldwide fame. He became one of the best players in the league. And then he planned a huge spectacle to tell everyone that he was leaving them. I don't have a problem with any negativity they throw his way all night. He's a professional athlete getting paid millions of dollars. He can deal with it.

In fact, I'm watching just to hear them boo. I want to see and hear the most outrageous coordination of boo-chanting in the history of sports. I have a feeling it will be a letdown in that regard, but that's why I'm watching.

2. The Heat in general have been a letdown. There is a lot of trash being thrown at Coach Spolstra, but I think the issue is that LeBron and Wade are having a hard time coming to grips with the fact that they can't play together. Sure, when they were on Team USA it was easy. No one cared about how many points you scored, you only played a handful of games, and you were playing against (mostly) inferior competition. Oh, and you both knew you weren't the Alpha Dog (that was Kobe and they all knew it), so it was easy for you to accept your roles and play together. But now you're back home in the NBA and things are a little different. And you don't know how to play together.

Maybe they are going to figure it out. I'd be surprised if they've already resigned themselves to thinking they just cannot do it. But they certainly don't want to let people know that's what they're thinking. That after all that hype, they both realize they kinda sort made a bad decision.

Or maybe they'll start winning when Pat Riley starts coaching.

3. Tony Kornheiser offered the explanation that the NFL decided not to suspend Andre Johnson because the Texans' next game was on the NFL's Network and Johnson is basically the only draw to that team. Granted, Mike Vick is also playing, and he's probably been the most talked about positive story in the NFL this year (it's a shame Brett Favre and the Cowboys got more attention for so long). But it's a pretty reasonable point. As Adam Schefter said -- if that fight had happened on the street, they would have been arrested. Andre Johnson was openly pummeling Cortland Finnegan in the face! How is that not a suspension? Didn't Kyle Turley get suspended just for throwing his helmet?

GAME TIME. THE RETURN OF LEBRON!

Now That Was a Fight!

Literally the only enjoyable thing (at least from a Nashville perspective) about the Titans' 20-0 loss to Houston was the Finnegan-Johnson scuffle. I loved how Finnegan was clapping and laughing at it, although I think from an unbiased perspective, it makes him look like a dirty instigator. He clearly knows how to get under the opponent's skin. Unfortunately, sometimes he lets himself go a little and ends up drawing a flag (or getting kicked out), which would bother me... if I thought he was doing more harm than good on defense for the team.

Finnegan seriously cannot guard decent receivers. He's not as bad as Nick Harper was last year, but it seems to me like he's always turned around and just waiving his hands up when a pass comes his way. He is a solid tackler and blitzer, and is particularly good in run support, but I think his coverage skills are third on the team. That's right, I think the rookie Verner is the best coverage guy we've got. And McCourty is alright, too.

I'm not saying Finnegan should lose his starting job. I think overall he is better than the second-year McCourty, but I don't think our defense took that big of a hit once Cortland was ejected. Although that may have been because Andre Johnson (9 catches) was also ejected.


Now another thought, this time on the real game.

Rusty Smith looked awful. But that wasn't surprising. What WAS surprising was that we ran the ball 12 times. Seriously? A team with one of the best running backs in the league runs it only 12 times in a rookie QB's first NFL start?

And Fisher's comment on Monday was even more complexing: "Clearly our plan going in was to get the run game going and Chris going to take the pressure off the rookie quarterback. We were unable to do that, Rusty took a sack and we had a second-and-10 and you need to throw to get out."

Stop right there. We need to throw on second-and-10? Since when? When in your ENTIRE CAREER has your offense been prone to throwing it on second-and-10? Remember last year's game against the Texans? Well, I'll remind you.

Third quarter: Second-and-10: Lendale up the middle, no gain. Third down? Chris Johnson draw play. 91-yard TD.

Let's get the rest of that Fisher comment: "I think we had eight third-and-10 plusses out of 12 third-down attempts, and those are difficult to overcome."

So how many did you try running with CJ? Zero.

Back to last year: First quarter: third-and-19: Chris Johnson left side. 57-yard TD.

I just don't see why Fisher abandoned our best player to let a rookie QB try to throw it down the field on third-and-long. That makes no sense. And not only does it make no sense, but it's the complete opposite of what Fisher offenses have done the last 10 years. And yeah, I criticized him (and 'Dinger) a lot for it, but you know how they say a broken watch is right twice a day? Well we were coming up on the time when the watch was gonna be right (i.e. Fisher's usual strategy was gonna be the right call)... then Fisher moved the hands to make sure it would still be wrong!

I recognize the Titans offense was in a tough spot on Sunday. But our game plan didn't seem like it was designed for a rookie QB. When you don't game plan around your team's strengths and weaknesses, you're setting them up for failure.

I know the players take most of the blame, and they should. But once again, no one will question Fisher's coaching scheme. And maybe that's because of that awesome fight. But I think it's just another example of Jeff Fisher coaching blunders that go unnoticed and uncriticized.

It Takes Two (Titans) to Tango

If you're reading this, I'm pretty sure you know a lot about what happened on Sunday with Vince Young and the Titans. And I'm assuming you've realized that a lot of what was first reported didn't quite shake out the way the media spun it. All any of that does is (try to) skew sports fans' perceptions of Vince Young, Jeff Fisher, and the Titans in whichever way the journalist wants. (I'm not suggesting all the writing is maliciously intended to make you believe some made-up drama, just that each article takes a side and paints a picture.)

So as far as this story goes, I've just got one little idea I want to throw out there. Hopefully you'll at least find it interesting. Maybe it will even temper your view on the issue. Here it goes:

It seems like Jeff Fisher might be treating Vince Young like he's Steve McNair. Around the turn of the millennium, Fisher's quarterback was the ultimate tough guy. Number 9 was seemingly always shaking off an injury to come back into the game and lead the Titans to victory. He never sat on the bench waiting for Fisher to ask him if he was ready to come back in. He got taped up, put his helmet back on, and limped back out into the huddle. All Fisher had to do was run the ball a couple of times until McNair got his bones back in the right place. 

But Vince Young is a different guy. He's a guy with a fragile body and an even more fragile ego. He needs some encouragement. Or at the very least, a display of confidence. If he's going to play hurt, he's going to need some positive support. He's going to need the coach to come to him, not the other way around. 

Now maybe you say, "Tough! This is the NFL! It's not a game for wimps. Man up." And yeah, that's probably true. I'd much rather have a tough guy who is always in there for his team. But there's a time for "what I want" and a time for "what I have." The offseason (and specifically the April draft) is the time for the former. The season is the time for the latter. We're right smack dab in the middle of the season. It's time to get it done. 

The Titans don't have a tough stud; they've got a fragile talent. It's the head coach's job to make the best of what you have. Fisher might wish he had McNair, but he's got Young. And by treating Vince like Steve, he's making things worse for the Titans. I know he's been a head coach in the NFL for 16 season, but by mishandling the personality of his starting quarterback, Jeff Fisher has really just revealed his inability to adapt to the players he's coaching. 

Questions and Answers

Throughout the NFL in Week 10, a lot of questions were answered. But in Nashville, all we've got are more questions. First on the Titans, then on a few other NFL things I learned on Sunday.

The Titans came into Miami averaging 28 points per game, best in the league. They also came in with a new weapon, Randy Moss. How did our offense regress with Moss in the lineup? Wouldn't you think any team should benefit from having a Randy Moss who is willing to play team ball? The 17 points we scored was the second-lowest output of the season for Fisher & Co., and I can't quite figure out why.

Was it because Kerry Collins started? He clearly has no touch on downfield passes, overthrowing several open receivers for not apparent reason. He also couldn't throw the short passes; I noticed at least two plays where Collins hit a Dolphins defender in the helmet attempting a screen pass. Yikes. I know he had a great 4th quarter against the Eagles a few weeks ago, but I didn't see anything in Miami that warranted his $5 million salary.

Did Vince struggle because he came in cold in the second half? Maybe. On his third play, three Dolphins went basically unblocked, leading to a fumble. But he came back the next possession and drove us 73 yards in 11 plays for a TD. But once again, our second half defense was horrendous. We couldn't get off the field and Miami kept the ball for a 2:1 advantage in time of possession, giving Vince only 4 drives to work with. Could VY have been a little better? Of course. But he didn't exactly get a lot of in-game experience with his new toy, so let's not overreact. If Vince plays the entire game, I think Moss finishes with more than 28 yards on 1 catch.

Did Moss open up room for Chris Johnson? It sure looked like it. CJ averaged almost 7 yards per carry on his way to 117 yards against a defense that had allowed only one century-mark rusher this season (Adrian Peterson back in Week 2). This was the one positive I took away from the game. It was also nice to hear Mike Heimerdinger say that he spoke with Moss about the fact that he was being double-covered and Moss said he didn't care and was content to let the defense's coverage dictate the passing game. Sounds like a team player, right?

Is our defense any good? It certainly looks like we have a serious weakness against the pass. Our front four don't seem to be getting enough pressure, and our secondary doesn't seem to be guarding anyone. Even Tyler Thigpen was able to engineer a scoring drive. I seem to remember some blitzing from our defense early in the year. Where did it go?

I think we will look significantly better on offense against Washington next week. Vince and Heimerdinger will have more time to gel with Moss, and hopefully Cecil can fix the defense a little. Although maybe we'll get lucky -- If things don't go well for the 'Skins tonight against Philly, maybe Shanahan will bench McNabb and go with Rex Grossman.

Okay, now on to the rest of the NFL...

1) Did the Patriots expose that Steelers D? According to Cris Collinsworth, the Steelers were having trouble with the Patriots two-tight end sets. And it sure looked like it -- Brady threw for 350 yards and three TDs. I didn't see the Patriots have any trouble marching up and down the field. They even ran it for over 100 yards and more than 4 yards per carry. It looks like someone finally cracked the code.

2) The Jets get lucky again. There are two ways to interpret a team winning close games when they're not playing well. One is that they are a good team that can win even when they aren't playing well. The other is that they are just lucky. For the Jets, I'm taking the latter. This win over Cleveland relied on an overtime fumble by Cleveland receiver Chansi Stuckey at the Jets' 32-yard line. Their win over the Lions involved a missed extra point, a Jim Schwartz coaching mistake, and a crucial person foul call. A week before their bye, the Jets were a 46-yard pass interference call from a loss in Denver. This team is 7-2, but could very reasonably by 4-5.

3) The Giants lost to the Cowboys. I can't really say "I told you so" because I didn't exactly pick the Cowboys to win, but if you read the last blog post, you know that I was basically calling the Giants frauds at 6-2. They've got a tough remaining schedule, including @GB and two games against Philly and Washington. Don't be surprised if they miss the playoffs.

4) Buffalo wins! They've got a tough closing schedule, but I think they'll get to 2 or 3 wins and lose out to the Panthers for the #1 pick in April. And if you haven't heard Inside the NFL's sideline audio on Jay Cutler during the Bears-Bills game in Toronto, go find it. It's great.

5) The Seahawks are the roller coaster team. First, they go up and down up and down to start 2-2. Then they get 2 solid wins, and follow it with 2 blowout losses. Now another blowout win. I don't know what to expect from this team... except perhaps a playoff berth.

6) I still don't buy Tampa Bay. Let's talk in mid-December, after their @BAL, v. ATL, @ WAS stretch.

7) Atlanta impressed me with their Thursday night win over Baltimore, whose defense is starting to look ordinary.

8) I'm ready to officially make a Lock It Up pick for a division winner: San Diego wins the AFC West.

Titans' Second Half Preview

A few things I'll be looking for during the second half of the season for the Titans:

1. Can Vince keep it up? And will Fisher even give him a chance? He's gone almost 100 passing attempts without an interception, but people still don't seem to believe in his reliability. In my opinion, he can carry this offense. But he's not Peyton Manning, which means he is reliant on the coaches to actually let him throw the ball. They called 31 pass plays for Kerry Collins against the Eagles (actually 34 if you count the three sacks), but Vince hasn't been allowed to break 30 all year. One reason is that Vince is giving the Titans 4th quarter leads, which at least tells you Vince is doing his job and scoring points. But Fisher isn't allowing him to tack on an insurance TD late in the game, instead opting to try to run out the clock with 8 minutes to go and up by 4, which leads me to my next point(s)...

2a. Can we close out a game? I refuse to put all the blame on the defense for not being able to get off the field in the fourth quarter. The coaches need to stop calling in the prevent defense at the end of halves. As Phil Simms said in the fourth quarter of the Colts-Eagles game: "When the game is on the line, you have to let your defense do what it does best." Do you think the Titans are good at the prevent? Is that what we do best? No! Fisher needs to throw the Cover No One in the trash because it never works.

2b. Here's another radical concept. Let's take an idea from baseball: "Insurance Runs." These are runs that a good team scores in the late innings when they are already winning a close game. Adding a few insurance runs makes it easier to close out the other team. Your closer doesn't have to be perfect in order for you to win. In the Titans' case, the closer is our defense. It's pretty clear they are exhausted at the end of the game. Instead of putting the pressure on them by running the ball three times and punting, the Titans should go for an extra "insurance touchdown" to give the defense a little cushion. That's what a good team would do, anyway. I think the extra points would be much more helpful than a three-and-out that keeps the clock running.

3. How will Randy Moss affect the offense? Ideally, he'd haul in a few long balls a game, bring double teams, and clear out that loaded box Chris Johnson and the O-Line have been dealing with. Then, ideally, CJ will start tearing it up like he did in the second half of last season. We have the weapons. We can score from anywhere on the field at any time. Let's make it happen. And it would probably be helpful in Moss decides to block.

4. How will Moss affect the team? It will be interesting to see how he responds to Fisher. From the outside, (i.e. from the perspective of having never actually talked to either one of them) it seems like Fisher is the right type of coach for Moss. Let's hope so.

5. Can we beat Indy? We certainly have the tools to do it. Forget playing keep away from Manning, because we're no good at time of possession anyway. Just score a lot of points. If it's a low-scoring game, I'm afraid we don't have much of a chance, because Peyton is going to beat our defense eventually. If the Colts' D is stopping us, Peyton won't feel as much pressure to score, because he knows he'll do it eventually and that will be enough. But if it's a high-scoring game, I think that's when we can put the pressure on him. We can play a little more aggressively on defense and make him feel like he has to score every time to win. I think that's the way for us to beat the Colts.

6. It's going to be tough to get into the playoffs in the AFC. Here's a look at the teams we're dealing with:

Indy (5-3): They have to play @NE and home against SD in back-to-back weeks, plus two games against us. It's going to be tough for them to win 12 games again this year.

Jets (6-2): They've got @NE and @PIT with a tough home game against Miami in between. I feel like this team also has the potential to be upset by a team like Cleveland, Houston, or Cincy. I don't think the Jets can do better than 11-5.

Baltimore (6-2): Another game against the Steelers, and tough game in Atlanta on Thursday, but other than that, I don't see any reason why this team can't go 13-3. Unless Nola, Cincy, Houston, Tampa, or Cleveland can take them down.

Pittsburgh (6-2): They've got NE, @BAL, and the Jets. Until some offensive coordinator figures out the weakness in their defense, this team is in good shape. I'm thinking 12 or 13 wins.

Patriots (6-2): @PIT, Indy, NYJ, and GB. That's tough. They've also got Miami in the season finale. If this team can't figure out how to stop the run (and if their offense can't put up more than 14 points against the Browns), they're in trouble. I'm thinking 10-6 type trouble.

I'm leaving our KC, OAK, and SD because I think it's pretty clear the Chargers are going to run the table and win the division at 11-5. Oakland and KC are going to finish 9-7 at best.

Unfortunately eliminated: Houston, Miami, Jacksonville.
Don't deserve to be considered: Cincy, Cleveland, Denver.
Are you serious? Buffalo.

(Hopeful) Prediction: Titans win the division.

A Giant Analogy

Let’s talk college football. Since it’s hard to talk about specific teams without invoking bias, current season status, and other factors, I’m going to leave the team and it’s opponents unnamed. I’ll try to make everything clear with some short descriptions of the games and teams playing in them. Our team will be called Hypothetical University (HU).

Game 1: HU beats a team that no one thought was going to be good. At QB, they’re between a true freshman and a junior who doesn’t seem to be any good. As of Nov. 8, this team has won 1 game. HU wins, 31-18.

Game 2: HU loses to one of the national championship favorites, quarterbacked by a guy who many consider to be the best to ever play the position. This team has since suffered some injuries and now sits at 5-3, but they wallop HU, 38-14.

Game 3: HU loses to a team that was not expected to compete for a national title, but has since proved that they might need to be included in the conversation. This team also has the best running back in the nation. HU loses 29-10, and looks ugly doing it.

Game 4: HU beats a team that was a surprisingly 4-0 at the time, but has since slipped to 4-4. They also have a historically overrated QB, can’t block, or doing anything else for that matter. Although they have a solid defense, their offense epitomizes inept. HU wins 17-3.

Game 5: HU beats a team that, every year, seems like they are going to finally make the move into being a BCS contender. But this team has stumbled back to their familiar position at .500. HU wins 34-10.

Game 6: HU beats a historically awful team who is finally starting to look like they’re making progress. Nonetheless, this team is 2-6 as of Nov. 8. HU wins, 28-20.

Game 7: HU beats a team that was supposed to compete for a national title, but has actually been awful. This team has a lot of talent but seems to be poorly coached. They are now 1-7. HU wins 41-35.

Game 8: HU beats a team that wasn’t supposed to be any good. This team has a new coach and is a surprising 4-4. HU wins 41-7.

Okay so let’s recap: HU is 6-2. They lost to the two good teams they played, and beat the others, none of whom seem to be very good. Where would you rank HU in the Top 25? Would you say they are one of the top teams in the nation?

I know they’re not undefeated, and in college you can’t have more than 1 loss if you want to be top 5, so let’s try to be qualitative. How good is this team? Right, you’d have to see them play.

But from my descriptions, they seem like they’re okay, right? They beat a bunch of bad teams and lost to two good ones. So they’re clearly not elite, right? We can at least agree on that?

Well guess what? This team is the 2010 New York Giants. After losing to the Colts and Titans (games 2 and 3), they were declared “a team in disarray” and were 24^th in ESPN’s Power Rankings. Now, after beating all those mediocre-at-best teams, there are questions they could be the best team in the NFC or even the NFL.

My point is that even though the NFL has much more consistent competition than college football, it doesn’t mean that beating 5 bad teams makes you elite. So when the New York Giants get bludgeoned by two good teams and then beat 5 bad teams, it’s a little absurd when the media starts to wonder aloud whether they’re the best team in the league.