What’s that you say? The team with the ever-dangerous CJ2K needs to be pass-first? The guy ran for 2,000 yards last year and is second in the league this year (on pace for 1,400 yards, which aint too shabby). They need to lean more on a QB with a career rating of 75? A guy with a 1:1 TD:INT ratio?
Yes. Absolutely. Definitely.
The Titans are not struggling to score points. They’ve lit up the scoreboard more than any team in the NFL (and are second to the Patriots in points per game). But they are struggling to win the time of possession battle. What happens when you lose the time of possession battle? Your defense gets tired at the end of the game and you have a hard time closing out your opponent. Now, if you score 60 a game and your opponent has only 20 going into the 4th quarter, you can afford a tired defense. But that rarely happens in the NFL.
You’d usually suspect that to control the clock, you either need a precise and effective short passing game or, more conventionally, a power running game. The Titans, however, have neither. Vince Young is, by the eyeball measure, about ten times more effective down the field than with short passes. And Chris Johnson, by objective measure, is not the pound-it-out running back who can help you run out the clock. He’s either not gaining any yards, or breaking a long one for a TD. Not exactly a good way to chew up clock.
And the Titans are getting in trouble in the second half because the defense is spending more time on the field than the offense. (Let’s ignore the Pittsburgh game, because I think we can all agree the Titans got whipped in every facet of that game. We didn’t deserve to win.) So let’s look at the other two losses, Denver and San Diego. In each of these two games, the Titans held the ball for less than 10 minutes in the second half, allowing 16 points to Denver and 19 points to San Diego. Both teams overcame 4th quarter deficits to win.
What’s happening in the second half is the Titans are employing the standard Jeff Fisher approach to winning: once you have a lead, sit on it. We run at least twice per series. That’s usually first and second down. And usually the defense stops CJ for just a couple of yards and we are faced with third and long. The hardest passing situation for a quarterback is a 3rd and long off of two runs (I didn’t make that up, I heard it from an expert). So we are not gaining any yards and making it difficult for Vince to convert on third down. The result: lots of 3-and-outs. Then what? Defense is back on the field, with virtually no rest. Then cue the other team’s 4th quarter comeback.
So what can the Titans do to improve? It’s simple. Pass first. Vince Young’s passing has been more consistently effective than Chris Johnson’s running. Not that it’s CJ’s fault; defenses are stacking the box and shutting him down. And Vince is making them pay. He leads the NFL in yards per completion and is second in yards per attempt and QB rating. So the Titans need to capitalize on this opportunity.
So if we pass first, we’re going to get more first downs. First downs are how you keep drives alive, chew up clock, and give your defense rest. Not (necessarily) running the ball. If we can have more success in the second half, not only do we have a better chance of tacking on a few more points, but we are going to keep our defense more rested. Because anything is better than a 3-and-out.
You may say that passing is dangerous because an interception can turn the game around. But Vince Young has not turned the ball over since the loss to Pittsburgh. Is there anything else he can do to assure you he is safer with the ball? And you may say that incompletions stop the clock, so what good is that? But I’d rather get three first downs through the air with a few incompletions tossed in than keep the clock moving on three 2-yard runs, wouldn’t you?
I’m not saying pass only. Of course you want to pepper some CJ in the mix, too. I’m just saying anything is better than 3-and-out, and right now, we are much more likely to get first downs by passing the ball.
And you never know, maybe if we’re throwing the ball, we’ll accidentally score a touchdown and pad our lead. That’d be nice too, right?
Very good article. Adrien Peterson and CJ are considered the best two backs in the league, and although AP's production has decreased a little thanks to Brett Favre's season, he is still in the top 2 because teams fear Favre's arm. When you have only a running back as an offensive weapon, especially one who isn't much of a power back, defenses are immediately going to key on the running back. As hunter pointed out, Vince hasn't had many major miscues in the passing game in several weeks, and his efforts to go deep have often been rewarded with either deep gains or touchdown passes. Let Vince develop into a threat as a passer, which will certainly reap rewards, and his success as a passer will keep 9 men out of the box, freeing CJ for his home runs. When you have to prepare equally for either Vince or CJ as an offensive weapon, the Titans enter the game with a huge advantage
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